Predict Them Envelopes
Create prediction envelopes filled with guesses for coin flips, dice rolls, or weather. Test predictions, record results, and learn probability through hands on experiments.
Step-by-step guide to Predict Them Envelopes
Step 1
Gather all your materials and put them on a clean table so everything is easy to reach.
Step 2
Decide how many trials you will run for each test and write that number in your notebook.
Step 3
Use the marker to label three envelopes Coin; Dice; Weather so you know which is which.
Step 4
On one slip write your list of coin predictions (one prediction per line) until you have the planned number.
Step 5
Fold the coin predictions slip so it fits inside the Coin envelope.
Step 6
Put the folded coin predictions slip into the Coin envelope and seal it with a sticker or tape.
Step 7
On a fresh slip write your list of dice predictions (one number per line) until you reach the planned number.
Step 8
Fold the dice predictions slip then place it into the Dice envelope and seal it.
Step 9
On a new slip write your weather predictions for each day or time you will check (one prediction per line).
Step 10
Fold the weather predictions slip then place it into the Weather envelope and seal it.
Step 11
Run the planned coin trials by flipping the coin the decided number of times and record each outcome in your notebook under "Coin."
Step 12
Run the planned dice trials by rolling the die the decided number of times and record each outcome in your notebook under "Dice."
Step 13
For the weather test, make your daily observation at the same time each day and record each day's weather in your notebook under "Weather."
Step 14
Open each prediction envelope, compare the listed predictions to your recorded results, and count how many predictions were correct for each test; write those totals in your notebook.
Step 15
Calculate the experimental probability for each test by dividing correct predictions by total trials and write the percentages or fractions, then share your finished prediction envelopes and what you learned on DIY.org.
Final steps
You're almost there! Complete all the steps, bring your creation to life, post it, and conquer the challenge!
Help!?
What can we use if we don't have envelopes, stickers, or a marker?
If you don't have envelopes, stickers, or a marker, fold each prediction slip into a small paper pouch and seal it with a paperclip or tape, and label the pouch with a pencil before placing it in your Coin, Dice, and Weather 'envelopes' as in steps 4–9.
What should we do if our recorded outcomes don't match the planned number of trials?
If the number of recorded flips or rolls doesn't match the planned trials you wrote in your notebook (step 2), stop, recount or repeat the missing flips/rolls and update your notebook totals before opening the prediction envelopes in step 11.
How can I change the activity for younger or older kids?
For younger kids, reduce the planned trials in step 2 to 3–5 and help them write, fold, and seal the prediction slips in steps 4–9, while older kids can increase trials, calculate percentages or fractions in step 12, and analyze patterns across Coin, Dice, and Weather results.
How can we extend or personalize the prediction envelopes activity?
To extend the activity, decorate the Coin, Dice, and Weather envelopes, try extra tests with different coins or dice to compare bias, and make a bar graph of the experimental probabilities you compute in step 12 before sharing your results on DIY.org.
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Facts about probability for kids
🪙 A fair coin gives about a 50% chance of heads and 50% tails on each flip.
🌦️ A forecast like “30% chance of rain” usually means similar conditions produced rain 30% of the time or a 30% chance at any spot.
🎲 A standard six-sided die has a 1 in 6 (≈16.7%) chance for any particular face on one roll.
📈 Do the same experiment many times — the Law of Large Numbers says the results will get closer to the expected probability.
🔬 Real coin flips and dice rolls can be slightly biased, so hands-on tests help you discover surprises!
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